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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Birmingham City | Draw | Derby County |
38.74% | 25.61% | 35.64% |
Both teams to score 55.5% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.47% | 48.53% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.34% | 70.65% |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.36% | 24.64% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.85% | 59.15% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.64% | 26.36% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.49% | 61.51% |
Score Analysis |
Birmingham City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9.1% 2-1 @ 8.5% 2-0 @ 6.37% 3-1 @ 3.97% 3-0 @ 2.98% 3-2 @ 2.65% 4-1 @ 1.39% 4-0 @ 1.04% 4-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.82% Total : 38.74% | 1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 6.49% 2-2 @ 5.67% 3-3 @ 1.18% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.61% | 0-1 @ 8.66% 1-2 @ 8.09% 0-2 @ 5.77% 1-3 @ 3.59% 0-3 @ 2.57% 2-3 @ 2.52% 1-4 @ 1.2% Other @ 3.25% Total : 35.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 32 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
3 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
4 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
> Championship Full Table |