Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.51%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.