Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.33%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.