Two sides with different things to play for on the final matchday of the League Two campaign will square off on Saturday as Colchester United host Crewe Alexandra at JobServe Community Stadium.
For the U's, a single point this weekend will preserve their EFL status following a 4-1 defeat to Doncaster Rovers, while a draw would do the same for the Railwaymen despite suffering a 3-0 defeat versus Wrexham last weekend.
Match preview
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We saw another fast start at home for Colchester in midweek, but this time, it was not enough, as their ninth-minute lead lasted a mere five minutes, and this side did not handle the visitors' pressure all that well.
It was the second time this month that this team went on to lose a League Two encounter after drawing first blood, while they have lost three of their previous four home matches in this competition after going unbeaten in their five domestic contests played at JobServe Stadium before the beginning of April.
That will add to the drama in Colchester on Saturday, with the home team currently three points above Sutton United in the battle to avoid relegation and the Yellows battling MK Dons at the same time.
Even a defeat this weekend is unlikely to relegate them as Sutton United would still need to win their match by five goals to overtake them.
If they are able to avoid being relegated, a lot of credit will have to go to manager Danny Cowley, who was appointed in early 2024, with this team suffering just seven domestic defeats this year, nine fewer than this side incurred in the 2023 portion of the campaign.
In 2024, Colchester have picked up seven points from a losing position in the second half of their league fixtures while suffering just one domestic defeat this year when leading in the final 45 minutes.
They have dominated Crewe Alexandra at home, boasting a 100% record against them in League Two contests played in Colchester, winning those four encounters by a combined margin of 17-1.
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Some shaky performances of late by the club from Cheshire has cast some doubt on their chances of being promoted out of League Two this season.
In mid-February, after defeating Stockport County (3-1), their chances of earning an automatic promotion were looking good, but since then, they have only won three matches in this competition, sliding down from third to sixth in the table over that stretch.
A lack of quality in the attacking third has plagued them over the past few weeks, with Lee Bell's men netting just once in their previous six domestic affairs.
The Alex are three points above Crawley Town and two ahead of Barrow and would only miss the playoffs with a defeat this weekend, combined with both of those aforementioned teams claiming maximum points.
Being away from home might be the best thing for them heading into this pivotal encounter as they have lost consecutive matches at Gresty Road but are undefeated in three successive league fixtures as the visitors, failing to concede a single goal in any of those outings.
Crewe Alexandra have won three of their last five League Two meetings against Colchester but have not beaten them at JobServe Community Stadium since November 2015, when both sides featured in League One (3-2).
Team News
Harry Anderson, who suffered an injury versus Stockport County earlier this month, was unavailable for Colchester in midweek, while Samson Tovide and Tom Dallison were out through suspension.
We saw one change to their starting 11 earlier this week, as Jayden Richardson was relegated to the bench in favour of John Akinde.
Jayden Fevrier put his side in front in the early stages of their match with Doncaster, but it was not enough, as they conceded four goals at home for the second time in league play this season.
Ryan Cooney was given a straight red card against Wrexham for a handball, but he is eligible to play after the club successfully appealed his suspension, while Joel Tabiner and Courtney Baker-Richardson sat out of that encounter with injuries.
Lewis Leigh was eligible to return from suspension last weekend but was omitted from the team sheet, while Charlie Kirk was back from the injury front, replacing Elliott Nevitt in the latter stages of that contest.
In their previous meeting with Colchester United, Chris Long had a brace within the opening 10 minutes to power his side to a 2-1 triumph.
Colchester United possible starting lineup:
Hornby; Mingi, Harbottle, Hall, Iandolo; Fevrier, McGeehan, Read, Chilvers; Ihionvien, Hopper
Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Stryjek; Cooney, Williams, Demetriou, Adebisi; Kirk, Billington, Agius, Holicek; Austerfield; Nevitt
We say: Colchester United 2-0 Crewe Alexandra
All of the League Two contests on Saturday take place simultaneously, which means each side should feel a sense of urgency to earn a result.
Despite Crewe having 26 more points than their weekend opponents, they have looked undisciplined and unhinged defensively, sometimes against mediocre sides, while Colchester have been able to keep most of their recent matches close, and that consistency should help them in this decisive encounter.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
