CONCACAF Nations League | League C

Mar 28, 2023 at 12am UK

St Lucia
3 - 1
Dominica

President (19'), Frederick (40', 62')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Thomas (85' pen.)
Anselm (68'), Luke (87'), Thomas (89')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the CONCACAF Nations League League C clash between Saint Lucia and Dominica.

Form, Standings, Stats

Saint Lucia

Last Game: Anguilla 1-2 St Lucia
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Dominica

Last Game: Dominica 0-1 St Lucia
Thursday, June 9 at 8pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 50.94%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Dominica had a probability of 21.55%.

The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Dominica win it was 0-1 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint Lucia would win this match.

Result
Saint Lucia	Draw	Dominica
50.94% ( 0.16)	27.5% ( -0.01)	21.55% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 41.43% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.58% (

-0.1)

62.41% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.96% (

-0.08)

82.04% (

0.08)

Saint Lucia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.19% (

0.03)

24.81% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.6% (

0.04)

59.4% (

-0.04)

Dominica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.1% (

-0.23)

44.9% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.15% (

-0.18)

80.85% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Saint Lucia 50.94%

Dominica 21.55%

Draw 27.49%

Saint Lucia	Draw	Dominica
1-0 @ 15.52% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.03% 4-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 2.11% Total : 50.94%	1-1 @ 12.43% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.46% Total : 27.49%	0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.87% Total : 21.55%