Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arandina win with a probability of 37.85%. A win for Real Murcia had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arandina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.66%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Real Murcia win was 0-1 (11.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arandina in this match.
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