Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arenteiro win with a probability of 35.87%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arenteiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.06%) and 2-1 (7.01%). The likeliest Burgos win was 0-1 (13.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.