MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 12:29:43| >> :60:11:11:
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 7, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin
Patronato

Melgar
5 - 0
Patronato

Cuesta (8' pen., 41'), Bordacahar (13'), Martinez (22' pen.), D'Arrigo (58')
Arias (43'), Cuesta (68')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Geminiani (7'), Gonzalez (20'), Domingo (26'), Sosa (27'), Vazquez (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Melgar and Patronato, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Melgar 0-1 Atletico Nacional
Thursday, May 25 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Patronato

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Patronato 0-2 Olimpia
Thursday, May 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

We said: Melgar 1-1 Patronato

 Given Patronato's repeated failings in front of goal away from home, there should be no repeat of the 4-1 thumping that they dished out on Melgar last month, especially with the hosts fighting for their lives at the bottom of the section. Victory may still be out of reach for Sosa's men amid their struggles to convert draws into wins, but a point would be good enough to keep the race for third place alive until the final whistle blows on matchday six, while also extinguishing any slim Patronato hopes of a top-two finish. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 19.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.

Result
MelgarDrawPatronato
54.77% (0.359 0.36) 25.27% (-0.158 -0.16) 19.96% (-0.201 -0.2)
Both teams to score 45.09% (0.14 0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.48% (0.338 0.34)56.53% (-0.339 -0.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.49% (0.271 0.27)77.52% (-0.27200000000001 -0.27)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.35% (0.282 0.28)20.66% (-0.283 -0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.77% (0.442 0.44)53.23% (-0.443 -0.44)
Patronato Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.82% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)43.18% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.56% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)79.44% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Melgar 54.76%
    Patronato 19.96%
    Draw 25.27%
MelgarDrawPatronato
1-0 @ 14.06% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
2-0 @ 11.09% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.32% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
3-0 @ 5.83% (0.075 0.08)
3-1 @ 4.9% (0.06 0.06)
4-0 @ 2.3% (0.049 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.06% (0.024 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.93% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 54.76%
1-1 @ 11.81% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-0 @ 8.92% (-0.117 -0.12)
2-2 @ 3.91% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 25.27%
0-1 @ 7.49% (-0.103 -0.1)
1-2 @ 4.96% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-2 @ 3.15% (-0.046 -0.05)
1-3 @ 1.39% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.1% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.88%
Total : 19.96%

Head to Head
May 4, 2023 11pm
Group Stage
Patronato
4-1
Melgar
Cruz Esquivel (4', 70'), Ojeda (59'), Levato (86')
Martinez (53')
rhs 2.0
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