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Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jul 16, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Penarol

Nacional
1 - 2
Penarol

Bergessio (90+5')
Marichal (65'), Mendez (76')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Canobbio (45+2'), Rodriguez (90+2')
Rodriguez (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Nacional and Penarol, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.

Result
NacionalDrawPenarol
48.35%25.32%26.34%
Both teams to score 52.07%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.02%50.98%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.15%72.84%
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.9%21.1%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.07%53.93%
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66%34%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.32%70.68%
Score Analysis
    Nacional 48.34%
    Penarol 26.34%
    Draw 25.32%
NacionalDrawPenarol
1-0 @ 11.16%
2-1 @ 9.37%
2-0 @ 8.68%
3-1 @ 4.86%
3-0 @ 4.5%
3-2 @ 2.62%
4-1 @ 1.89%
4-0 @ 1.75%
4-2 @ 1.02%
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 48.34%
1-1 @ 12.04%
0-0 @ 7.17%
2-2 @ 5.05%
3-3 @ 0.94%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.32%
0-1 @ 7.74%
1-2 @ 6.5%
0-2 @ 4.18%
1-3 @ 2.34%
2-3 @ 1.82%
0-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 26.34%

How you voted: Nacional vs Penarol

Nacional
64.3%
Draw
21.4%
Penarol
14.3%
42
Head to Head
Jul 4, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 9
Nacional
2-0
Penarol
Ocampo (71'), Candido (84')
Neves (12'), Trasante (52'), Corujo (58'), Cantera (79')

Trindade (22'), Kagelmacher (81'), Acosta (89')
Feb 3, 2021 9.30pm
Gameweek 4
Penarol
0-0
Nacional
Urreta (45'), Gargano (81')
Rodriguez (84')
Mendez (72'), Oliveros (86')
Mendez (90+4')
Dec 13, 2020 8.30pm
Gameweek 7
Penarol
3-2
Nacional
Formiliano (28'), Terans (37'), Nahuelpan (88')
Herrera (38'), Kagelmacher (57'), Bravo (68'), Torres (82'), Urreta (90')
Neves (40'), Rodriguez (46')
Aug 9, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 4
Nacional
1-1
Penarol
Bergessio (33')
Suarez (35')
Terans (81')
Alvarez (90')
Britos (62')
Dec 15, 2019 8pm
Championship Semi-Final
Nacional
1-0
Penarol
Zunino (81')
Cardacio (15'), Corujo (28'), Vina (62'), Neves (86')

Busquets (4'), Rojas (31'), Rodriguez (42'), Estoyanoff (45'), Lores (47'), Formiliano (95')
Lores (85'), Dawson (89')
rhs 2.0
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