Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 39.86%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 33.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.