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UEFA Conference League
Conference League | League Stage
Dec 19, 2024 at 8pm UK
Gradski stadion

Backa Topola
4 - 3
Noah

Stanic (41'), Dakovac (74', 76'), Pantovic (81')
Banjac (63'), Capan (86'), Ilic (90+8'), Radin (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Aias (5', 48'), Ferreira (15')
Cinari (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Conference League clash between Backa Topola and FC Noah, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Backa Topola

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Last Game: Gent 3-0 Backa Topola
Thursday, December 12 at 8pm in Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

FC Noah

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Noah 1-3 APOEL
Thursday, December 12 at 5.45pm in Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

We said: Backa Topola 2-0 FC Noah

 With a hostile home crowd supporting them all the way, Backa Topola should be very confident of securing a win that could take them into the knockout stages of the Conference League. Noah need a victory on the road in the League Phase for the first time on Thursday, but we feel that the Armenians will fall short and consequently bow out of the competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Backa Topola win with a probability of 54.5%. A win for FC Noah had a probability of 24.51% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Backa Topola win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.96%) and 1-0 (6.63%). The likeliest FC Noah win was 1-2 (6.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Backa Topola would win this match.

Result
Backa TopolaDrawFC Noah
54.5% (0.768 0.77) 20.99% (0.537 0.54) 24.51% (-1.3 -1.3)
Both teams to score 65.13% (-3.571 -3.57)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.05% (-4.006 -4.01)32.94% (4.013 4.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.34% (-4.762 -4.76)54.66% (4.768 4.77)
Backa Topola Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.72% (-1.108 -1.11)12.28% (1.114 1.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.97% (-2.387 -2.39)38.03% (2.393 2.39)
FC Noah Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.24% (-3.089 -3.09)25.75% (3.095 3.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.3% (-4.384 -4.38)60.69% (4.39 4.39)
Score Analysis
    Backa Topola 54.5%
    FC Noah 24.51%
    Draw 20.99%
Backa TopolaDrawFC Noah
2-1 @ 9.44% (0.409 0.41)
2-0 @ 6.96% (0.875 0.88)
1-0 @ 6.63% (1.086 1.09)
3-1 @ 6.6% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 4.86% (0.418 0.42)
3-2 @ 4.47% (-0.423 -0.42)
4-1 @ 3.46% (-0.157 -0.16)
4-0 @ 2.55% (0.114 0.11)
4-2 @ 2.35% (-0.338 -0.34)
5-1 @ 1.45% (-0.135 -0.14)
5-0 @ 1.07% (0.002 0)
4-3 @ 1.06% (-0.267 -0.27)
5-2 @ 0.98% (-0.193 -0.19)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 54.5%
1-1 @ 9% (0.763 0.76)
2-2 @ 6.4% (-0.3 -0.3)
0-0 @ 3.16% (0.633 0.63)
3-3 @ 2.02% (-0.4 -0.4)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 20.99%
1-2 @ 6.1% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-1 @ 4.29% (0.534 0.53)
0-2 @ 2.91% (0.122 0.12)
2-3 @ 2.89% (-0.421 -0.42)
1-3 @ 2.76% (-0.264 -0.26)
0-3 @ 1.32% (-0.063 -0.06)
2-4 @ 0.98% (-0.249 -0.25)
1-4 @ 0.94% (-0.186 -0.19)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 24.51%

How you voted: Backa Topola vs Noah

Backa Topola
75.0%
Draw
8.3%
FC Noah
16.7%
60
rhs 2.0
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