The odds are stacked against Aris dropping into the Europa Conference League knockouts in their debut season in Europe, but they are unlikely to be pushovers for Sparta.
A narrow 3-2 win in the reverse shows Aris can be tricky customers, but the visitors should win here and take their place in the knockout rounds of this competition, even if they do fall slightly short of the three-goal margin needed to potentially win the group.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aris Limassol win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for Sparta Prague had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aris Limassol win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Sparta Prague win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sparta Prague would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
