We said: Ferencvaros 2-1 Malmo
Given the number of players that are set to miss out for Malmo on Thursday, it is difficult to see how they overcome their hosts.
Additionally, the visitors have been poor away from home for some time and Ferencvaros should come into the clash as favourites.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 51.46%. A win for Malmo had a probability of 25.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Malmo win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ferencvaros would win this match.