Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 66.06%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Valmiera / BSS had a probability of 14.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Valmiera / BSS win it was 0-1 (4.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.