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FA Cup
Crewe Alexandra
FA Cup | First Round
Nov 6, 2021 at 3pm UK
Alexandra Stadium
Swindon Town

Crewe
0 - 3
Swindon


Robertson (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Reed (25'), Simpson (52'), Payne (79')
Williams (38'), Reed (75')
Coverage of the FA Cup First Round clash between Crewe Alexandra and Swindon Town.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 53.93%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 23.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.4%) and 0-2 (8.66%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.

Result
Crewe AlexandraDrawSwindon Town
23.28%22.8%53.93%
Both teams to score 57.05%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.11%42.88%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.71%65.29%
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.81%32.19%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.32%68.68%
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.14%15.86%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.94%45.06%
Score Analysis
    Crewe Alexandra 23.28%
    Swindon Town 53.93%
    Draw 22.79%
Crewe AlexandraDrawSwindon Town
2-1 @ 6.04%
1-0 @ 5.79%
2-0 @ 3.28%
3-1 @ 2.28%
3-2 @ 2.1%
3-0 @ 1.24%
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 23.28%
1-1 @ 10.65%
2-2 @ 5.56%
0-0 @ 5.11%
3-3 @ 1.29%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 22.79%
1-2 @ 9.81%
0-1 @ 9.4%
0-2 @ 8.66%
1-3 @ 6.02%
0-3 @ 5.31%
2-3 @ 3.41%
1-4 @ 2.77%
0-4 @ 2.45%
2-4 @ 1.57%
1-5 @ 1.02%
0-5 @ 0.9%
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 53.93%

Head to Head
Feb 20, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 30
Swindon
2-1
Crewe
Johnson (10' og.), Twine (90+4')
Thompson (84')
Lowery (5')
Lowery (70')
Dec 1, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 15
Crewe
4-2
Swindon
Powell (39'), Ng (54'), Lowery (63'), Dale (66')
Grant (20'), Smith (38')
Broadbent (68')
Jan 11, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 27
Swindon
3-1
Crewe
Hunt (32'), Yates (69'), Rose (72')
Caddis (80'), Woolery (95')
Anene (61')
Oct 19, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 14
Crewe
3-1
Swindon
Porter (59', 90'), Kirk (94')
Doyle (37')
Woolery (76'), Rose (78'), Lyden (80'), Doyle (83')
Apr 22, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 44
Swindon
1-2
Crewe
Doughty (63' pen.)
Dunne (34'), Woolfenden (95')
Porter (3', 45')
Green (58'), Wintle (62'), Porter (66'), Kirk (68'), Lowery (89'), Hunt (96')
rhs 2.0
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