Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penrith win with a probability of 45.35%. A win for Crook Town AFC had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penrith win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.62%) and 3-2 (5%). The likeliest Crook Town AFC win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.