Inter Milan make the trip to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona knowing that they realistically require maximum points if they are to remain in the Serie A title race.
Meanwhile, Verona are under pressure to improve on a run of just one win in four games, which has left the club battling to remain in contention for a Europa League spot.
Match preview
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Through the opening six months of this season, Inter were regarded as the main challengers to long-time champions Juventus, often exchanging leads with their rivals who were struggling for consistency.
However, Inter's home defeat to Bologna has resulted in Antonio Conte's side now trailing the frontrunners by 11 points, leaving them with an almost impossible task.
While Conte will stress to his players that they must keep believing until Juve cannot be mathematically chased down, the head coach will acknowledge that they realistically must put together a 100% record until the end of the season.
More frustratingly for Conte, dropping five points in recent weeks is a result of capitulations at San Siro, which have undermined their comeback victory at Parma.
Although second position remains a realistic possibility, I Nerazzurri now only hold a one-point advantage over fourth-placed Atalanta BC.
On a positive note, they are squaring off against opponents in Hellas Verona, who have displayed similar frailties since the resumption of action.
Seven of the last 10 goals which they have conceded have come in the second half, three of which have been scored in the 90th minute or added-on time.
Such a record suggests that Ivan Juric's side have been behind their opponents in terms of fitness or are struggling to cope with the expectations of being in the race for Europe, a year on from having earned a return back to the top flight.
While there is still time to challenge the likes of Napoli and AC Milan for sixth spot, a third defeat in five matches on Thursday night would leave Verona at risk of dropping down to 12th place.
Hellas Verona Serie A form: LWLDWL
Inter Milan Serie A form: LWDWWL
Team News
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Inter are able to call upon defender Milan Skriniar, who has been absent for the last three matches through suspension.
However, the centre-back will come into the team as a direct replacement for Alessandro Bastoni after his red card against Bologna.
Nicolo Barella misses out through injury, while Cristiano Biraghi could be preferred to Ashley Young at left wing-back.
Unlike their opponents, Verona head into this contest with a fully-fit squad.
Koray Gunter could be recalled in the centre of defence, with Valerio Verre potentially getting the nod over Fabio Borini further forward.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Rrahmani, Gunter, Kumbulla; Faraoni, Badu, Amrabat, Lazovic; Zaccagni, Verre; Carmine
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Godin, De Vrij, Skriniar; Candreva, Gagliadini, Brozovic, Biraghi; Eriksen; Martinez, Lukaku
We say: Hellas Verona 1-1 Inter Milan
While Inter can ill-afford any more dropped points, Verona will be placing priority on improving at the back. Taking both things into consideration, we feel that a low-scoring draw is the most likely scoreline, a result which does not necessarily help either team.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 21.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.87%) and 0-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 1-0 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
