We said: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 Luxembourg
Luxembourg have not had the best of luck when facing the Bosnians, losing all six contests against them and scoring just a single goal.
As much as The Dragons have struggled at home, their scoring depth should be enough to outlast Les Lions Rouges, who spend most of their matches defending, with the odd counter.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bosnia-Herzegovina would win this match.