Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 51.92%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Zambia had a probability of 23.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.59%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Zambia win it was 0-1 (7.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mali in this match.