Nepal

3 - 1

Bangladesh

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nepal win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Bangladesh had a probability of 35.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nepal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.59%) and 2-0 (5.62%). The likeliest Bangladesh win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nepal would win this match.