An away win is on the cards in this clash of two teams with very different ambitions for the rest of the campaign, as Oxford are well-placed to take advantage of their hosts' defensive frailties.
The pressure to produce is relentless at this stage of the season, given such a tightly-packed top half of the League One table, but the U's can make the most of their firepower to take a stranglehold of the game.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 52.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 22.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Gillingham win it was 1-0 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-7 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
