Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 1-0 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.