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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 47.26%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 25.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for a Sutton United win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Sutton United |
47.26% ( -1.1) | 27.12% ( 0.51) | 25.61% ( 0.59) |
Both teams to score 46.25% ( -0.89) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.74% ( -1.4) | 58.26% ( 1.4) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.11% ( -1.11) | 78.89% ( 1.11) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.31% ( -1.13) | 24.69% ( 1.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.77% ( -1.61) | 59.23% ( 1.61) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.41% ( -0.25) | 38.59% ( 0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.67% ( -0.24) | 75.33% ( 0.24) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Sutton United |
1-0 @ 13.32% ( 0.27) 2-0 @ 9.32% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.2) 3-1 @ 4.14% ( -0.22) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.33% Total : 47.26% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 9.53% ( 0.5) 2-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.12% | 0-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 6.04% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 1.92% 0-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.55% Total : 25.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 55 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 43 |
3 | Salford City | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Port Vale | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 41 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
6 | Notts County | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 40 |
7 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 40 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 38 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 25 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 37 |
10 | Chesterfield | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 34 |
11 | MK Dons | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 34 |
12 | Bromley | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 34 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 31 |
14 | Gillingham | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 30 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 28 |
16 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 27 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 24 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 27 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 26 |
19 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 25 |
20 | Swindon TownSwindon | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 25 |
21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 25 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 25 |
23 | Morecambe | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 20 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 18 |
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