Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 32.3% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (11.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.