We say: Arsenal 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur
The eagerly-anticipated North London derby seldom fails to deliver on the ferocity front, but as both sets of players completed two-hour FA Cup marathons after their EFL Cup exertions, this one may not be a classic quality-wise.
Confidently predicting which version of Spurs will show up is an impossible ask, but their struggles at Tamworth - even with a second-string attack starting the clash - are a serious cause for concern.
Arsenal are hardly firing on all cylinders up front either, but the Gunners are never short of chances to put the ball in the back of the net, and they may just need to take one of them on Wednesday to complete a morale-boosting derby double.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arsenal win with a probability of 59.27%. A draw has a probability of 20.4% and a win for Tottenham Hotspur has a probability of 20.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (8.24%) and 1-0 (7.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.11%), while for a Tottenham Hotspur win it is 1-2 (5.39%).