We said: Monaco 4-1 Red Star Belgrade
Red Star's away form in the Champions League says it all, and a 12th straight defeat on the road is expected against a Monaco side that are yet to lose this season.
No team has gone on a longer run in the UCL without a clean sheet than Monaco (22 games), but they should have more than enough in attack to comfortably sweep their Serbian opponents aside here.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 48.65%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.53%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.