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Champions League

Red Star Belgrade
Champions League | League Stage
Sep 19, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Stadion Rajko Mitic
Benfica

Red Star
1 - 2
Benfica

Milson (86')
Wamangituka (25'), Seol (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Akturkoglu (9'), Kokcu (29')
Fernandez (52'), Kabore (64'), Aursnes (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Champions League clash between Red Star Belgrade and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Red Star Belgrade

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Last Game: Sturm Graz 0-1 Red Star
Thursday, December 11 at 5.45pm in Europa League
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Benfica

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Last Game: Farense 0-2 Benfica
Wednesday, December 17 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal
Next Game: Benfica vs. Famalicao
Monday, December 22 at 8.45pm in Primeira Liga
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 37.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.03%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Benfica in this match.

Result
Red Star BelgradeDrawBenfica
37.5% (0.16 0.16)23.84% (0.467 0.47)38.66% (-0.623 -0.62)
Both teams to score 62.09% (-1.781 -1.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.93% (-2.317 -2.32)40.07% (2.321 2.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.56% (-2.439 -2.44)62.43% (2.443 2.44)
Red Star Belgrade Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.51% (-0.95 -0.95)21.49% (0.953 0.95)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.47% (-1.484 -1.48)54.52% (1.488 1.49)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.07% (-1.295 -1.3)20.92% (1.298 1.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.35% (-2.07 -2.07)53.65% (2.073 2.07)
Score Analysis
    Red Star Belgrade 37.5%
    Benfica 38.66%
    Draw 23.84%
Red Star BelgradeDrawBenfica
2-1 @ 8.32% (0.093 0.09)
1-0 @ 6.91% (0.534 0.53)
2-0 @ 5.32% (0.266 0.27)
3-1 @ 4.26% (-0.077000000000001 -0.08)
3-2 @ 3.33% (-0.199 -0.2)
3-0 @ 2.72% (0.06 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.64% (-0.078 -0.08)
4-2 @ 1.28% (-0.116 -0.12)
4-0 @ 1.05% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 37.5%
1-1 @ 10.81% (0.43 0.43)
2-2 @ 6.5% (-0.191 -0.19)
0-0 @ 4.5% (0.466 0.47)
3-3 @ 1.74% (-0.179 -0.18)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.84%
1-2 @ 8.46% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 7.03% (0.471 0.47)
0-2 @ 5.5% (0.158 0.16)
1-3 @ 4.41% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-3 @ 3.39% (-0.243 -0.24)
0-3 @ 2.87% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.73% (-0.144 -0.14)
2-4 @ 1.33% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-4 @ 1.12% (-0.059 -0.06)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 38.66%

How you voted: Red Star vs Benfica

Red Star Belgrade
18.4%
Draw
15.0%
Benfica
66.7%
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