We said: Bologna 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk
While Shakhtar's experience should count in their favour, the Ukrainian champions do not tend to travel well and could come unstuck in Emilia-Romagna.
Bologna's early displays under Vincenzo Italiano have not been convincing, but they can grit their teeth and gain a point before heading to Anfield next month.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-1 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.