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Copa Libertadores
Gremio
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 29, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Major Antonio Couto Pereira

Gremio
4 - 0
The Strongest

Soteldo (14'), Pedro (50'), Galdino (67'), Nunes (89')
Kannemann (16')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Aimar (28'), Jusino (37'), Quiroga (53')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Gremio and The Strongest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gremio

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Bahia 1-0 Gremio
Sunday, April 28 at 1am in Brasileiro

The Strongest

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: The Strongest 4-0 Huachipato
Wednesday, May 15 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

We said: Gremio 1-1 The Strongest

 While Gremio are massive favourites according to the bookmakers, it will be interesting to see how they fare after a full month away from competitive football and playing at a makeshift home ground. The visitors have been very good in this competition so far, and we feel they may be able to hold their opponents to draw in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 71.58%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for The Strongest had a probability of 11.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.06%), while for a The Strongest win it was 0-1 (3.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
GremioDrawThe Strongest
71.58% (0.079999999999998 0.08) 17.08% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02) 11.33% (-0.065 -0.06)
Both teams to score 50.81% (-0.163 -0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.63% (-0.093999999999994 -0.09)38.37% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.34% (-0.098999999999997 -0.1)60.65% (0.096000000000004 0.1)
Gremio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.53% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)9.46% (0.0039999999999996 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.23% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)31.76% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
The Strongest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.12% (-0.17599999999999 -0.18)43.88% (0.173 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.97% (-0.145 -0.15)80.02% (0.142 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Gremio 71.58%
    The Strongest 11.33%
    Draw 17.08%
GremioDrawThe Strongest
2-0 @ 11.54% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
1-0 @ 9.79% (0.041 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.51% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
3-0 @ 9.07% (0.034999999999998 0.03)
3-1 @ 7.47% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
4-0 @ 5.35% (0.019 0.02)
4-1 @ 4.41% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 3.08% (-0.018 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.52% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
5-1 @ 2.08% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.82% (-0.01 -0.01)
6-0 @ 0.99% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.96%
Total : 71.58%
1-1 @ 8.06% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.15% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.92% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 17.08%
0-1 @ 3.42% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-2 @ 3.32% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-2 @ 1.41% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.08% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-3 @ 0.91% (-0.009 -0.01)
Other @ 1.2%
Total : 11.33%

How you voted: Gremio vs The Strongest

Gremio
56.5%
Draw
8.7%
The Strongest
34.8%
23
Head to Head
Apr 3, 2024 1am
Group Stage
The Strongest
2-0
Gremio
Ursino (16'), Triverio (73')
Rojas Cespedes (17'), Lavallen (18'), Ursino (23')
rhs 2.0
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