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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Iceland national football team
Nations League | League B
Oct 11, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Laugardalsvollur
Wales national football team

Iceland
2 - 2
Wales

Tomasson (69'), Ward (72' og.)
Teitur Thordarson (28'), Dagur Thorsteinsson (32')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Johnson (11'), Wilson (29')
Johnson (32'), Roberts (41'), Moore (51'), James (59'), Ward (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Iceland and Wales, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iceland

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Turkey 3-1 Iceland
Monday, September 9 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Wales

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Montenegro 1-2 Wales
Monday, September 9 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Iceland 1-1 Wales

 Wales will believe they are good enough to come out on top on Friday and few would be surprised to see them claim maximum points here. However, Iceland have impressed on home soil - winning three and drawing one of their last four games - and we feel they could frustrate the Dragons in a tight contest in Reykjavik. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 36.93%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 33.59% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.46%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-0 (12.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
IcelandDrawWales
33.59% (0.052999999999997 0.05) 29.48% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 36.93% (-0.101 -0.1)
Both teams to score 43.45% (-0.12 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.5% (-0.146 -0.15)63.49% (0.143 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.17% (-0.105 -0.11)82.82% (0.10299999999999 0.1)
Iceland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.8% (-0.042999999999992 -0.04)35.2% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.05% (-0.044 -0.04)71.95% (0.040000000000006 0.04)
Wales Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.05% (-0.142 -0.14)32.95% (0.139 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.47% (-0.156 -0.16)69.53% (0.154 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Iceland 33.59%
    Wales 36.93%
    Draw 29.47%
IcelandDrawWales
1-0 @ 12.11% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 7.02% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-0 @ 6.32% (0.02 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.44% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 2.2% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 1.36% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.13%
Total : 33.59%
1-1 @ 13.44% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 11.59% (0.06 0.06)
2-2 @ 3.9% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 29.47%
0-1 @ 12.87% (0.02 0.02)
1-2 @ 7.46% (-0.025 -0.03)
0-2 @ 7.15% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.76% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.65% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.44% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 36.93%

How you voted: Iceland vs Wales

Iceland
32.0%
Draw
31.4%
Wales
36.6%
153
Head to Head
Mar 5, 2014 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Wales
3-1
Iceland
> Match Report
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