Paraguay possess the potential to be a dark horse at the Paris Games, but they arguably face their toughest test in Group D on matchday one in the form of Japan, who will also fancy their chances of claiming victory from Wednesday's contest. With little to separate these two nations, a closely-fought battle could be in store in Bordeaux, leading us to predict that the spoils will be shared on this occasion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan Under-23s win with a probability of 80.72%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Paraguay Under-23s had a probability of 6.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan Under-23s win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.9%) and 1-0 (10.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a Paraguay Under-23s win it was 0-1 (2.34%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan Under-23s would win this match.

Result
Japan Under-23s	Draw	Paraguay Under-23s
80.72% ( -5.96)	13.03% ( 3.54)	6.25% ( 2.42)

Both teams to score 42.46% (

3.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.31% (

-6.1)

36.69% (

6.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.15% (

-6.96)

58.85% (

6.96)

Japan Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.95% (

-2.31)

7.05% (

2.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.26% (

-6.56)

25.74% (

6.56)

Paraguay Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.68% (

4.42)

54.32% (

-4.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.53% (

2.52)

87.47% (

-2.52)

Score Analysis

Japan Under-23s 80.71%

Paraguay Under-23s 6.25%

Draw 13.03%

Japan Under-23s	Draw	Paraguay Under-23s
2-0 @ 13.46% ( 0.53) 3-0 @ 11.9% ( -1.25) 1-0 @ 10.15% ( 1.67) 2-1 @ 8.22% ( 1.33) 4-0 @ 7.9% ( -2.13) 3-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.27) 4-1 @ 4.82% ( -0.52) 5-0 @ 4.19% ( -1.93) 5-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.7) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.36) 6-0 @ 1.85% ( -1.26) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.05) 6-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.53) Other @ 3.58% Total : 80.71%	1-1 @ 6.2% ( 1.68) 0-0 @ 3.83% ( 1.05) 2-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.68) Other @ 0.5% Total : 13.03%	0-1 @ 2.34% ( 0.86) 1-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.69) Other @ 2.02% Total : 6.25%