Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.