Paris 2024

Olympic Games Men's Football | Group Stage

Jul 30, 2024 at 8pm UK

Parc des Princes

Paraguay U23s
1 - 0
Mali Under-23s

Fabian Fernandez Benitez (5')
de la Cruz Perez Mosqueira (38'), Gomez (45+7'), Fabian Fernandez Benitez (58'), Cardozo (71'), Fernandez Torres (90+10'), Caballero (90+12')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Cisse (90+8'), Doucoure (90+12'), Doumbia (90+8')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Olympic Games Men's Football clash between Paraguay Under-23s and Mali Under-23s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paraguay Under-23s

All competitions

Last Game: Israel U23s 2-4 Paraguay U23s
Saturday, July 27 at 6pm in Olympic Games Men's Football

Mali Under-23s

All competitions

Last Game: Japan U23s 1-0 Mali Under-23s
Saturday, July 27 at 8pm in Olympic Games Men's Football

With so much at stake here, we expect both teams to be fully up for this one, giving rise to an entertaining affair. That said, we are also backing Paraguay to come out on top, albeit by only a narrow margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali Under-23s win with a probability of 61.94%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Paraguay Under-23s had a probability of 16.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali Under-23s win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.63%) and 1-2 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Paraguay Under-23s win it was 1-0 (5.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Paraguay Under-23s would win this match.

Result
Paraguay Under-23s	Draw	Mali Under-23s
16.99% ( -0.8)	21.07% ( -0.33)	61.94% ( 1.13)

Both teams to score 52.41% (

-0.54)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.96% (

0.1)

44.03% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.58% (

0.1)

66.42% (

-0.1)

Paraguay Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.71% (

-0.89)

39.28% (

0.89)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.01% (

-0.84)

75.99% (

0.84)

Mali Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.33% (

0.37)

13.67% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.13% (

0.74)

40.87% (

-0.74)

Score Analysis

Paraguay Under-23s 16.99%

Mali Under-23s 61.93%

Draw 21.07%

Paraguay Under-23s	Draw	Mali Under-23s
1-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.06% Total : 16.99%	1-1 @ 9.98% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 5.37% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.12) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.07%	0-1 @ 10.68% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 10.63% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 7.05% ( 0.26) 1-3 @ 6.59% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 3.51% ( 0.17) 1-4 @ 3.28% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.53% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.4% ( 0.09) 1-5 @ 1.31% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.94% Total : 61.93%