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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Poland national football team
Nations League | League A
Oct 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadion Narodowy
Croatia national football team

Poland
3 - 3
Croatia

Zielinski (5'), Zalewski (45'), Szymanski (68')
Zielinski (70')
FT(HT: 2-3)
Sosa (19'), Sucic (24'), Baturina (26')
Gvardiol (33'), Baturina (78'), Budimir (90+2')
Livakovic (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Poland and Croatia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Poland

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Poland 1-3 Portugal
Saturday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Croatia

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Croatia 2-1 Scotland
Saturday, October 12 at 5pm in Nations League

We said: Poland 1-1 Croatia

 Lewandowski cannot do it all on his own for Poland, who have failed to pull up trees for a number of months now, although Croatia were fortunate to come away with all of the spoils against Scotland. While the visitors may just edge it on paper, it would not be surprising to see a low-scoring stalemate in Warsaw, as both sides remain firmly in contention for a coveted top-two placement. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Poland had a probability of 31.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Poland win was 2-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
PolandDrawCroatia
31.08% (-0.193 -0.19) 24.6% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 44.31% (0.233 0.23)
Both teams to score 57.59% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.79% (0.113 0.11)45.21% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.45% (0.109 0.11)67.55% (-0.11499999999999 -0.11)
Poland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.43% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)27.56% (0.064999999999998 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.92% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)63.08% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Croatia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.5% (0.149 0.15)20.5% (-0.155 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.02% (0.24 0.24)52.98% (-0.246 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    Poland 31.08%
    Croatia 44.31%
    Draw 24.59%
PolandDrawCroatia
2-1 @ 7.44% (-0.03 -0.03)
1-0 @ 7.28% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-0 @ 4.69% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-1 @ 3.19% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.53% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-0 @ 2.02% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.03% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 31.08%
1-1 @ 11.53% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 5.89% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-0 @ 5.65% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.34% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.59%
1-2 @ 9.14% (0.023 0.02)
0-1 @ 8.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 7.1% (0.031 0.03)
1-3 @ 4.83% (0.035 0.04)
0-3 @ 3.75% (0.033 0.03)
2-3 @ 3.11% (0.017 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.91% (0.023 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.49% (0.02 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.23% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 44.31%

How you voted: Poland vs Croatia

Poland
27.6%
Draw
27.3%
Croatia
45.1%
275
Head to Head
Sep 8, 2024 7.45pm
League A
Croatia
1-0
Poland
Modric (52')
Kovacic (2'), Pjaca (14'), Sucic (40'), Petkovic (68'), Budimir (90+1'), Probierz (90+4')

Bednarek (44'), Probierz (72')
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