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Copa Libertadores WWW header

Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 16, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre

Rosario
4 - 1
Caracas

Lovera (29'), Modica (33', 57'), Lo Celso (90+1')
Modica (40')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Echenique (85')
Pernia (25')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Rosario Central and Caracas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rosario Central

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 3-2 Rosario
Saturday, May 11 at 1.15am in Argentine Primera Division

Caracas

All competitions
Last Game: Caracas 0-1 Penarol
Tuesday, May 7 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

We said: Rosario Central 2-0 Caracas

 This is the second time in the last three seasons that Caracas have featured in the group stage of this tournament, yet they still look indecisive and intimidated by some of the bigger clubs from Brazil and Argentina. While Rosario have not been all that clinical so far in this competition, they can expect to have plenty of chances against a side that have shown to be relatively passive so far. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 54.7%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 20.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rosario Central would win this match.

Result
Rosario CentralDrawCaracas
54.7% (0.144 0.14) 24.95% (0.018999999999998 0.02) 20.35% (-0.169 -0.17)
Both teams to score 46.49% (-0.292 -0.29)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.04% (-0.262 -0.26)54.95% (0.256 0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.76% (-0.216 -0.22)76.23% (0.211 0.21)
Rosario Central Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.93% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)20.06% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.71% (-0.072999999999993 -0.07)52.29% (0.066999999999993 0.07)
Caracas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.16% (-0.333 -0.33)41.84% (0.327 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.7% (-0.291 -0.29)78.29% (0.28500000000001 0.29)
Score Analysis
    Rosario Central 54.69%
    Caracas 20.35%
    Draw 24.94%
Rosario CentralDrawCaracas
1-0 @ 13.48% (0.12 0.12)
2-0 @ 10.82% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-0 @ 5.8% (0.035 0.04)
3-1 @ 5.05% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.33% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.2% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.03% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 54.69%
1-1 @ 11.74% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.39% (0.083 0.08)
2-2 @ 4.11% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 24.94%
0-1 @ 7.31% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-2 @ 5.12% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-2 @ 3.19% (-0.026 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.49% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.19% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-3 @ 0.93% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 1.12%
Total : 20.35%

How you voted: Rosario vs Caracas

Rosario Central
100%
Draw
0.0%
Caracas
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Apr 23, 2024 11pm
Group Stage
Caracas
1-1
Rosario
Pernia (25')
Rivas (17'), Perez (34'), Jimenez (79')
Modica (67')
Martinez (79'), Modica (90+3')
rhs 2.0
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