Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 45.38%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 27.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.94%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
