Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 60.84%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Dijon had a probability of 17.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Dijon win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.