Mali and Guinea-Bissau are set to face off in the latest round of Africa Cup of Nations Group I qualifying fixtures this Friday, with both teams eyeing important points in their quest for AFCON 2025 qualification.
The hosts sit in second place in the group table with four points from two games, tied with leaders Mozambique, but trailing due to head-to-head away goals.
Match preview
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After a draw against Mozambique in their opening game, Mali rebounded with a narrow away victory over Eswatini, thanks to an early goal from Yves Bissouma.
The Tottenham Hotspur midfielder has now scored twice in the qualifiers and, as they head into their third match, the home side will look to leverage their strong home form, which has historically bolstered their AFCON campaigns.
Under new manager Tom Saintfiet, who took charge in August, Mali have so far demonstrated stability, beginning with a challenging draw against Mozambique and backing that up with a victory over Eswatini that marked his first win and extended their unbeaten run in AFCON qualifying to four matches.
Mali's last defeat came in March 2023 when they lost to Gambia, but they have since maintained an impressive home unbeaten streak in AFCON qualifiers that dates back to 2014, spanning 14 matches.
The home side's dominance in head-to-head encounters with Guinea-Bissau, having won six of their seven meetings, including a commanding 6-2 victory in their most recent friendly earlier this year, is another factor that could play in their favour.
With a strong home record, favourable head-to-head results and the motivation to take control of Group I, Mali are eager for a victory that would not only maintain their pursuit of the top spot but also bring them closer to their 14th AFCON appearance.
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Guinea-Bissau enter this match in third place in Group I with three points from two games, trailing Mali by just one point after starting their AFCON qualifying campaign with a win over Eswatini, followed by a narrow defeat to Mozambique that ended a four-game unbeaten run across all competitions.
Despite the loss, the visitors remain well in contention for qualification and a positive result against Mali would keep them within striking distance of the group leaders as they aim for their fifth consecutive AFCON appearance.
The Djurtus have been in fine form during recent AFCON qualifiers, recording seven wins and only two losses in their last 10 games, and this combined with their experience from previous AFCON tournaments will be needed as they take on a formidable Mali side.
Guinea-Bissau will enter this game with a sense of urgency, as a win or even a draw would represent a significant step toward securing a spot in next year's AFCON.
Team News
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Bissouma will aim to maintain his impressive scoring form to help the home side secure results, as he has done in recent matches.
Ibrahim Cisse of Schalke has received his first call-up to the Mali national team and will hope to make an impact in this match.
Guinea-Bissau will rely on Carlos Mane's creative influence, which was evident in their performance against Eswatini, as he will need to deliver another strong display for his team to get a result.
Goalkeeper Manuel Balde will need to be at his best to thwart Mali's goal threat and help secure a positive result for his team.
Mali possible starting lineup:
Diarra; Diakite, Diaby, Fofana, Doucoure; Dieng, Camara, Bissouma; Traore, Doumbia, Djenepo
Guinea-Bissau possible starting lineup:
Manuel Balde; Encada, Sangante, Sambinha, Nanu; S Mane, Mama Balde, Dalcio, Semedo, C Mane; Turbo
We say: Mali 2-1 Guinea-Bissau
Mali's strong home record, combined with their impressive head-to-head history against Guinea-Bissau, gives them a significant advantage in this match.
While the home side may dominate the game and create more chances, Guinea-Bissau are capable of exploiting any defensive lapses to get a goal.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
