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World Cup
Madagascar national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage
Jun 11, 2024 at 2pm UK
FNB Stadium
Mali national football team

Madagascar
0 - 0
Mali


Amada (39'), Patrick Laiton (90+8')
Demeleon (16')
FT

Fofana (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Madagascar and Mali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Madagascar

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Madagascar 2-1 Comoros
Friday, June 7 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Mali

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Mali 1-2 Ghana
Thursday, June 6 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

We said: Madagascar 1-1 Mali

 Having been steady in World Cup qualifying for the 2022 finals before ultimately losing out to Tunisia, Mali have struggled for consistency in performances and results this time. That should be music to the ears of Madagascar, who have scored five times in their last two games in qualifying. While success for the hosts will not be surprising, the Eagles could benefit from not playing under home pressure in Johannesburg, possibly seeing them nick a point on Monday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 46.8%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 23.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.14%) and 1-2 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.47%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
MadagascarDrawMali
23.47% (-0.348 -0.35) 29.73% (0.02 0.02) 46.8% (0.329 0.33)
Both teams to score 38.19% (-0.323 -0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
32.46% (-0.245 -0.25)67.54% (0.247 0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
14.37% (-0.164 -0.16)85.63% (0.16500000000001 0.17)
Madagascar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.03% (-0.494 -0.49)45.97% (0.496 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.3% (-0.385 -0.38)81.7% (0.38799999999999 0.39)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.7% (0.051999999999992 0.05)29.3% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.73% (0.061999999999998 0.06)65.27% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Madagascar 23.46%
    Mali 46.79%
    Draw 29.73%
MadagascarDrawMali
1-0 @ 10.46% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-1 @ 4.99% (-0.087 -0.09)
2-0 @ 4.07% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
3-1 @ 1.29% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-0 @ 1.05% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 1.59%
Total : 23.46%
0-0 @ 13.47% (0.13 0.13)
1-1 @ 12.85% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 3.07% (-0.048 -0.05)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 29.73%
0-1 @ 16.53% (0.17 0.17)
0-2 @ 10.14% (0.12 0.12)
1-2 @ 7.89% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-3 @ 4.15% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
1-3 @ 3.23% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
0-4 @ 1.27% (0.018 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.25% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.33%
Total : 46.79%

How you voted: Madagascar vs Mali

Madagascar
27.3%
Draw
31.8%
Mali
40.9%
22
rhs 2.0
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