Nashville SC begin their Leagues Cup campaign on Wednesday when they host Mazatlan at GEODIS Park in the first-ever meeting between the two teams.
Over the weekend, the Mexicans were beaten 1-0 by the New England Revolution, while the Boys in Gold lost their previous MLS encounter, 3-0 to the Philadelphia Union.
Match preview
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BJ Callaghan begins his tenure as Nashville boss in less than ideal circumstances, with his team currently on a six-match losing run in MLS.
Wednesday is his first game in charge, and the man who guided the USA senior men's squad to the 2023 CONCACAF Nations League title has called for a more direct, attack-minded approach from this group.
Nashville have lost by three or more goals in each of their previous two domestic encounters, failing to score on both occasions.
The Boys in Gold have lost three of their previous four MLS contests in the Music City, with their only victory over that stretch coming against New York City FC in June (1-0).
They have emerged victorious in three of their previous four Leagues Cup contests played at GEODIS Park, losing on penalties in the 2023 final versus Inter Miami.
Wednesday will mark the fifth time they face a side from Mexico at this tournament, with the Boys in Gold only suffering one defeat, 4-3, versus Toluca in the 2023 group phase.
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For over an hour this past weekend, Mazatlan appeared to be holding strong defensively before a Revs breakthrough, 21 minutes from the end, turned the tide.
That was their first defeat in a Leagues Cup group fixture, and it has them on the brink of elimination for the first time in this phase of the tournament.
Mazatlan have lost their last three matches across all competitions, while failing to score in any of those encounters.
Not since April of this year have they emerged victorious from an away match, defeating Queretaro 2-0 in a Clausura Liga MX affair.
Victor Manuel Vucetich's men have scored the second-fewest goals (two) in the Mexican top flight this season while also conceding the joint second-most (eight).
Their only victory versus an MLS side in this competition occurred last year when they stunned the crowd at Q2 Stadium, defeating Austin FC 3-1.
Team News
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There are numerous question marks for Nashville heading into this game as Sam Surridge and Julian Gaines sat out of their previous encounter with ankle issues, while Dru Yearwood and Tyler Boyd are dealing with minor knocks.
Randall Leal is dealing with a sore hip, Lukas MacNaughton has been sidelined after undergoing surgery on his leg and Walker Zimmerman is representing the USA at the Olympics.
Surridge had the joint-most goals for them in this competition last year, alongside former striker Fafa Picault (three), while a missed penalty by reserve goalkeeper Elliot Panicco sent them to defeat in the final of this competition last year.
In their opening match at the Leagues Cup this year, Canoneros did not have Lucas Merolla available as he is still dealing with a knee injury.
We saw three new faces in their starting 11 against the Revs who did not begin their previous Liga MX encounter with Guadalajara (2-0), including Facundo Almada, Jose Joaquin Esquivel and Josue Colman.
Colman and Eduard Bello are the only players still on the team from a year ago who scored during their 2023 Leagues Cup campaign.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Panicco; Moore, Bauer, Kallman, Washington; Godoy, Davis; Muyl, Mukhtar, Shaffelburg; Ajago
Mazatlan possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; Colula, Almada, Sanchez, Escoboza; Barcenas, Sierra, Esquivel, Meraz, Colman; Amarilla
We say: Nashville SC 1-1 Mazatlan (Nashville wins on penalties)
With neither side looking all that clinical when in possession, we project both will have difficulty finding a decisive breakthrough, but we are trusting the experience of the Boys in Gold in what could be a nail-biting affair to win the day.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 50.16%. A win for Mazatlan had a probability of 26.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Mazatlan win was 1-2 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
Joel Lefevre
