It is an all-MLS affair in the round of 32 of the Leagues Cup as New England Revolution and New York City FC go head to head at the Gillette Stadium on Friday.
Having failed to win their last four meetings between the sides, the Revs will head into the weekend looking to get one over the visitors and continue their quest for a first Leagues Cup title.
Match preview
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New England Revolution booked their spot in the knockout stages of the Leagues Cup on Tuesday when they picked up a penalty-shootout victory over fellow MLS side Nashville at the Gillette Stadium.
After falling behind to Bobby Wood's third-minute opener, Sam Surridge scored on the stroke of half time to draw Nashville level, but with nothing to separate the sides after normal time, the game went on to penalties where the hosts secured a 5-4 victory.
This followed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Mexican outfit Mazatlan in the Group I curtain-raiser on July 28, when Jack Panayotou netted midway through the second half to hand the Revs a dream start to the campaign.
While Caleb Porter's men have enjoyed a solid Leagues Cup run, they have struggled for results in MLS, where they are on a four-game winless streak, picking up just one point from a possible 12 since their 2-1 victory over Atlanta United on July 4.
New England Revolution, who are currently rooted to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, will now look to secure a third consecutive home win for the first time since July 2023 and reach the Leagues Cup round of 16 for the second straight year.
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New York City, meanwhile, were left red-faced in their final group-stage game as they suffered a 4-2 defeat at the hands of fellow MLS side FC Cincinnati after blowing their two-goal lead in the final 11 minutes at the TQL Stadium.
After holding the lead for most of the game courtesy of goals from Santiago Rodriguez and Jovan Mijatovic, the visitors were found wanting at the defensive end of the pitch as Pavel Bucha, Yamil Asad, Yaya Kubo and Sergio Santos all scored for Cincinnati in a late 10-minute spell to turn the game on its head.
However, having picked up a penalty-shootout victory over Mexican side Queretaro in the opening game on July 29, New York City finished as runners-up in Group L with two points from a possible six.
With the result against Cincinnati, Nicholas Cushing's men have now failed to win five of their last six matches, picking up three draws and losing twice, including a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Austin FC in MLS on July 7.
Despite their recent struggles back home, New York City remain on course to secure a playoff spot as they currently sit fifth in the Eastern Conference standings with 38 points from 25 matches.
The Boys in Blue will be backing themselves to return to winning ways on Wednesday as they take on a New England Revolution side who have failed to win the last four encounters between the two teams, losing twice and claiming two draws since a 3-0 victory in September 2022.
Team News
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New England will take to the pitch without several players down the spine of the team as Carles Gil (leg), Ema Boateng (hamstring) and Nacho Gil (knee) continue their spells on the sidelines.
Argentine forward Tomas Chancalay has been ruled out since picking up a knee problem in May's clash against New York City while teenage midfielder Noel Buck is currently recuperating from a hip injury.
Giacomo Vrioni, who has eight MLS goals under his belt this season, has also been sidelined due to a calf issue and the Albanian striker is set to sit out his fifth consecutive match.
As for Friday's visitors, Cushing will be unable to name 23-year-old midfielder Andres Perea, who has missed each of the last four games since coming off injured against Chicago Fire on July 14.
He is joined on the New York City's injury table by Sierra Leone forward Malachi Jones, who continues his lengthy spell on the sidelines after breaking his leg in June's clash with Orlando City.
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Ivacic; Bye, Romney, Arreaga, Miller; Polster; Kaye, Bajraktarevic; Harkes, McNamara; Wood
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Freese; Ilenic, Martins, Risa, McFarlane; Parks, Sands, Haak; Wolf, Martinez, Rodriguez
We say: New England Revolution 1-2 New York City FC
Having scraped through the group stages, New York City will need to be at their best at the Gillette Stadium as they look to surpass last season's round-of-32 exit. Cushing's men have lost just one of their last eight games against New England Revolution and we are tipping them to secure the win here, albeit by the odd goal.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 35.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-0 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%).
Joshua Ojele
