Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 47.54%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Austin FC in this match.