Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 52.07%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Korona Kielce had a probability of 23.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Korona Kielce win it was 0-1 (6.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.