Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 53.95%. A win for Petrocub Hincesti had a probability of 23.07% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.73%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Petrocub Hincesti win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.