The Portland Timbers can book a place in the knockout stage of the Leagues Cup with a victory on Thursday against the Colorado Rapids at Providence Park.
It will be the first match of the competition for the Burgundy Boys, who won their previous MLS encounter, 3-2 versus Real Salt Lake, while Portland came from behind to win their Leagues Cup opener, 2-1 over Club Leon.
Match preview
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The Timbers started slowly on Sunday for a second match running, but their impressive attack responded to win for a third time in their last four competitive fixtures.
Set pieces rescued them in their opener, with both goals coming off corner kicks, the first two for them on corners this season.
That was the fifth successive victory for Phil Neville's men at Providence Park, while they are undefeated in their last eight home matches in all competitions.
With a victory on Thursday, the Timbers will not only advance beyond the group stage of this tournament for a second successive campaign, but they will also exceed their points record in the group stage of the Leagues Cup from 2023 (three).
Portland have scored in 23 of their 26 matches played across all competitions this season while scoring multiple goals on 21 occasions.
When conceding the opening goal, the Timbers have come from behind to win three matches across all competitions this year at Providence Park.
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Perhaps the best feel-good story in MLS this year, the Colorado Rapids will enter this tournament with points in four of their previous five league contests.
Chris Armas's high-paced brand of football has unlocked the attacking prowess missing from this team in past seasons, with the Rapids tied with Portland and Los Angeles Galaxy for the second-most goals scored in the Western Conference (50).
Playing away from home has been a trouble spot for them in 2024, where they have lost five of their last six domestic encounters, conceding three or more goals in four of those matches.
The Rapids have come from behind to win three league fixtures this season despite conceding the opening goal but have also lost twice when netting the opener.
In their first appearance at the Leagues Cup last year, the Burgundy Boys failed to collect a single point, losing to Nashville SC (2-1) and Toluca (4-1), respectively.
They have not beaten the Timbers at Providence Park since 2020 (1-0), losing their last three visits there by a combined score of 10-3.
Team News
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In their Leagues Cup opener, David Ayala returned from a knock suffered in early July versus Nashville SC, replacing Eryk Williamson.
Marvin Loria, who has been recovering from knee surgery for some time, was on the substitutes bench but did not feature this past weekend, while Maxime Crepeau was back between the sticks in place of James Pantemis, his first appearance since a 2-2 draw against the Houston Dynamo at the beginning of June.
Zac McGraw netted a brace to rescue the Timbers against Leon, the first two-goal game of his professional career, becoming the first defender to score twice for this club in a single game since Larrys Mabiala in June 2018.
Colorado could be missing Kevin Cabral, who is dealing with a sore elbow, Jackson Travis has a stress fracture and Daniel Chacon is unlikely to feature because of a knee injury.
Adam Beaudry is with the USA squad for the CONCACAF Under-20 championship, while Djordje Mihailovic is with the American Olympic team in Paris.
Jonathan Lewis and Sam Vines found the back of the net for the Burgundy Boys in the opening half versus RSL, while Cole Bassett slotted home an 88th-minute penalty to give them all three points at the Rocky Mountain Cup.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Mosquera, McGraw, Zuparic, Bravo; Williamson, Chara; Antony, Evander, Rodriguez; Mora
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Rosenberry, Bombito, Maxso, Vines; Larraz, Ronan; Fernandez, Bassett, Lewis; Navarro
We say: Portland Timbers 3-1 Colorado Rapids
Rarely have we seen the Rapids look sharp defensively away from home this season, and we expect the talented group of attackers in Portland will bury the Burgundy Boys on Thursday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 55.95%. A win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 23.82% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.82%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Colorado Rapids win was 1-2 (5.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.
Joel Lefevre
