Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 50.26%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 25.78% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 0-1 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.