Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.89%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 17.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.72%) and 1-2 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-7 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Belenenses | Draw | Benfica |
17.07% | 23.04% | 59.89% |
Both teams to score 46.51% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.97% | 52.03% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.23% | 73.76% |
Belenenses Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.05% | 43.95% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.92% | 80.08% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.97% | 17.03% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.83% | 47.17% |
Score Analysis |
Belenenses | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 6.15% 2-1 @ 4.48% 2-0 @ 2.53% 3-1 @ 1.23% 3-2 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.6% Total : 17.07% | 1-1 @ 10.89% 0-0 @ 7.48% 2-2 @ 3.96% Other @ 0.7% Total : 23.04% | 0-1 @ 13.24% 0-2 @ 11.72% 1-2 @ 9.64% 0-3 @ 6.92% 1-3 @ 5.69% 0-4 @ 3.06% 1-4 @ 2.52% 2-3 @ 2.34% 0-5 @ 1.08% 2-4 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.63% Total : 59.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 92 | 29 | 63 | 84 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 39 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 68 | -37 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |