Both sides have enjoyed contrasting starts to the season, with Famalicao currently languishing just outside the relegation zone. Looking at the gulf in class and quality in the two sides, and their respective forms heading into the game, we are tipping Benfica to claim all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 50.53%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 25.47% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 1-0 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
