Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21
Feb 7, 2022 at 9.15pm UK
Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas
Moreirense4 - 1Belenenses
We said: Moreirense 1-1 Belenenses
Both sides head into this one in poor form and we expect them to take the game to each other in search of a morale-boosting win. While Belenenses are without a win against the hosts in each of their last eight meetings, their most recent three encounters have ended all square. We predict another share of the spoils with both sides scoring one goal apiece. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.28%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (10.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Belenenses |
| 42.28% | 28.02% | 29.69% |
| Both teams to score 46.32% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
