Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 0-1 (9.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.